Being conferred one of the wizards of Dalal Street (by CNBC TV 18), do you feel comfortable with the markets? Or the markets still give enough surprises? Can you share some incidents?
Let me tell you this. I bought my first stock in 1980. One of the biggest problems was that you were not getting enough books to read till about 1990. Business stories were very thin and partially covered in the newspapers. In 90â€™s we started getting the books and it became a little better place for us. Then there were so called â€˜market indicesâ€™. People didnâ€™t know what â€œmarketâ€ means in terms of indices. At the turn of the century after the dot com burst, people started looking at the NASDAQ index and Dow Jones, thanks to our tech listing here. So, suddenly people started talking about the market indices along with individual stocks. We have seen very challenging years in 90â€™s after the Harshad Mehta boom in 1992.
If you do research, you will find some good ideas, go ahead and buy it and get handsome returns. It takes time to recommend to the people and you can still buy it at a little lower price. Now it can be a terrific investing market and if the stage prolongs for some more time, I think the person who has an investing mindset, he will do wonderfully well. Because there are stories of good businesses happening. Itâ€™s not that the market is down, so there are no stories happening. If you go and check out some stocks, then you will find that there are some stocks which have given 30-40% year-on-year growth. So, I think there are enough ideas. And for the people who are confident of picking up ideas I think itâ€™s a good place.
On an average how does the response to your services change in a bear phase compared to a bull phase?
This greed and fear thing prevails across the business and unfortunately, our business is impacted lot more by the prevailing sentiment in the market. So, when markets are in bullish phase, there is a lot more demand for the services. Everybody wants to get into the market to get that speculative profit. I generally feel there is a 7 year cycle. 1985 was the first boom, 1992 witnessed the second boom. 2000 was the third boom and 2007 was the fourth boom. So, depending on how big the boom time was, about 2-2.5 year period is required by the markets to correct itself. In these 2-2.5 year period the investors get fed up and leave the market. After that period once the boom time starts, investors start pouring in money again and bullish trend starts. In nominal terms we are growing pretty large, say 14-15% every year and therefore we see the economy doubling in every 5 years in terms of value. We keep talking about real growth of the economy, and that is most important. In 10 years time it will be a 4 times bigger economy.
Do you feel "One up on wall street" is an excellent book and simple observations/common sense about the stock are enough to identify good stocks in the market?
I would say, "One up on wall street" was a great book to encourage me to get into the stock markets because it is a common sense approach to stock investing. So, the issue with common sense is that do people use common sense? It is not common to use common sense. That is the fact of the market. There is no dearth of IQ, there is no dearth of understanding, and there is no dearth of analytical skills, intellectual capabilities, research reports, balance sheets, conference calls. So literally there is an information overload about any business or a company. But just because of little lack of common sense people are not able to make it. The guys who are good at using common sense and are not hyper in terms of their activities will be successful.
Do you feel DCF, market multiple etc. are a good valuation method? Most academic books talk about these approaches, but in practise are these approaches reliable?
See, DCF is a perfect theoretical model to value the stock, but you have to fix those numbers. You have to decide whether you want to do a 15 year DCF, or 10 year DCF. You have to know what are you discounting and that is all imaginary. So, the accuracy depends upon the quality of number you fix. You are not going to know those numbers. So, itâ€™s absolutely hypothetical. As a framework itâ€™s perfect, but on the back of your mind you are doing your own DCF. If you give me a story of a particular company I will do my own DCF, in the sense that how much will the company make and how much should I pay for it. You will have a different estimate because you might not be as bullish and you might have a difference of opinion on cost of production or competition etc. So, as a structure it is right, but DCF doesnâ€™t give a set method of getting the right number and therefore itâ€™s all imaginary. You may use the P/E model, P/B value model or the replacement model, whatever ratio you use, you are trying to understand only one thing, which is the intrinsic value of the business. Price is given every second, so you have to find the difference between price and value.
What do you think is the the next best value migration in India?
I think internet will hold the key to a lot of value migration from the traditional industries. Talking about the banking sector, if you remain the old type banker, you are not going to survive in the industry. Like in stock markets, our traditional execution modes are now more online driven. Public sector to private sector value migration is going to happen in a lot of businesses. In banking, 70% banking is done by public sector banks. That is definitely going to shift to high quality private sector banks. The erosion of the market share of public sector banks will be very fast. This migration seems to be a big one today. These value migrations keep on happening. Like lot of commodities will give way to branded products. Suddenly you will find that cheap garments are not selling, but branded ones which are 3-4 times more expensive are selling. People move from commoditized stocks to branded stocks. There the opportunity is going to be fairly large.
Would you like to comment on the evolving role of SEBI in the Indian capital markets?
I think they have done a wonderful job, because I have seen markets without SEBI before 1992, this was before the Harshad Mehta scam. The kind of orderliness, transparency and discipline in the market has increased with SEBI coming up. I think the most wonderful thing to have happened to Indian stock markets is the emergence of SEBI. That is one era from completely no-regulation to proper regulation along with the emergence of NSE. I think SEBI has done a wonderful job so far, but at this point of time when the markets are down and we need to ask ourselves that has SEBI gone overboard in regulating mutual funds and other instruments ahead of time. Because every industry has an evolutionary process and if you regulate too much before it has completely evolved, there may be problems. The question which needs to be asked is whether there has been excessive regulation on the mutual funds. But broadly, SEBI has done a good job of keeping the markets free and fair for everybody.
What advice do you have for fresh finance graduates who are looking to make it big in the financial advisory services? What does MOFSL look for in such candidates?
I sincerely believe that the guy should have passion for stock market investing. Lot of people come here because this job offers a lot of money. But there is a lot of hard work involved. For the money they have to actually slog here. But slogging becomes very light and enjoyable once you love the entire game. Everybody is not cut for everything. Somewhere there is a natural inclination to do things. For example, I became a Chartered Accountant but filing a tax return was not interesting to me. The issue is not that they were not paying me. But I was really not interested in that kind of a work. I always tried to read balance sheet, trying to find out what was happening in the stock markets. Even when I didnâ€™t have money and didnâ€™t know much about stocks, I was really curious about the markets. It was very exciting to me. You need to have that passion and curiosity to learn and make it happen because everybody starts from the same level when you are young, but one has to read to get to the next level because these things are not taught in classrooms. So, you need natural passion to read also. You read 25-40 books in as less time as possible and then you become better. Keep practising, you will make mistakes, but I am sure one day you will be better in stock investing. The most important skill is that you need to be passionate about stock markets to enter this industry.